Air Force Secretary and B-21 Bomber, Budget Updates: Key Stories We're Monitoring for 2025
In 2025, we're eagerly watching the Air Force and Space Force, as they navigate a variety of challenges and decisions. Here are some stories we're keeping a close eye on.
Who's the Boss?
It's more than just a popular sitcom – it's also the biggest unknown regarding the Department of the Air Force as we move into the new year. Though, President-elect Donald Trump has announced his picks for virtually every other major Pentagon post, the choice for the Air Force remains a mystery.
Why? Despite the other service secretaries having been chosen, the pick for the Air Force Secretary post is still yet to be revealed. This decision will likely set the tone for the department's future direction, potentially reversing the modernization efforts by former Secretary Frank Kendall.
What Happens to NGAD and CCA?
The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, previously seen as the Air Force's successor to the F-22, remains uncertain, with a "pause" announced by Kendall in July 2024. The ambitious Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, centered around developing autonomous drones, is another key concern for the next Air Force leader.
Kendall's work pushing CCA forward is likely to be his biggest legacy as secretary. However, the pace of its progress remains unclear. Officials have indicated a goal of having several hundred drones flying by the end of the decade.
What's Next for B-21?
The B-21 Raider, the Air Force's stealthy, secretive new bomber, entered flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, California, at the beginning of 2024. Since then, little has been said about its flight testing program, with few details about its progress.
Of note, B-1 bombers have been relocated from Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, allowing for construction on the base's runway in anticipation of the first B-21's arrival, expected in the "mid-2020s." Enthusiasts will be eager for more details in 2025.
Integrated Capabilities Command
One of the biggest changes from the re-organization the Air Force announced earlier this year was the creation of a new command to coordinate the service's requirements process. The Integrated Capabilities Command (ICC), as envisioned, aims to streamline how the Air Force sets requirements for its future force, freeing other commands to focus on current needs.
Gen. David W. Allvin announced the standup of a provisional ICC, with the goal of achieving full operational capability in 2025. However, driving this command to completion may prove challenging, as it will require moving personnel and establishing a headquarters, which will need Congressional approval.
REFORPAC
Another initiative announced is a major exercise in the Indo-Pacific in summer 2025, named "Resolute Force Pacific" (REFORPAC). The scale of the exercise is meant to be vast, with nearly 300 aircraft spread across 25 locations in the Pacific.
However, the scale of the exercise may have to be pared back if Congress does not pass a new budget in time. Pacific Air Forces boss Gen. Kevin B. Schneider has stated that planning for REFORPAC is underway, with options in place depending on available funds.
Warrant Officers
One of the most popular changes the Air Force announced in 2024 was the reintroduction of warrant officers in the cyber and IT career fields. Warrant officers fill technical rather than leadership functions, providing the expertise needed to stay up to date on the latest technical knowledge in fast-moving fields.
The first class of warrant officers graduated in December, and another cohort is not far behind. However, the Air Force's plans for employing these new warrant officers and gathering feedback on their impact remain unknown.
Space Force Growth
After explosive growth in its early years, the Space Force faced its first proposed budget cut for 2025. Leaders have grown increasingly vocal about the need for more manpower and resources to fulfill all the Space Force's growing missions, particularly counter-space efforts.
With President Trump's return to office, the Space Force could receive a boost in its efforts to expand. The rate at which the Space Force grows will be closely watched, as will whether new leaders place more emphasis on the mission of offensive space or discuss it more openly.
Air Force Growth
The Air Force has been squeezed by rising costs for nuclear modernization and the need to modernize other parts of the force. This has led to controversial decisions to retire equipment, particularly fighter aircraft, to free funding for future modernization.
Congress has resisted these cuts, but skepticism about the F-35 fighter and the Air Force's overall strategy remains. The incoming administration will need to make major decisions about how to pay for more Air Force and what it might be willing to give up to acquire more jets faster.
- The yet-to-be-named Air Force Secretary will likely determine the department's future direction, potentially affecting the ongoing modernization efforts by former Secretary Frank Kendall.
- The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter and the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, focusing on autonomous drones, remain uncertain, their progress reliant on the decisions of the new Air Force leader.
- The B-21 Raider, the Air Force's new stealth bomber, entered flight testing in 2024, but details about its progress since then have been scarce.
- The Integrated Capabilities Command (ICC), aimed at streamlining the Air Force's requirements process, is set to be established in 2025, though the challenge of moving personnel and establishing a headquarters may prove difficult.
- The massive exercise "Resolute Force Pacific" (REFORPAC) is planned for summer 2025, with nearly 300 aircraft across 25 locations in the Pacific, although the exercise's scale may need to be reduced due to potential budget constraints.
- The Air Force's reintroduction of warrant officers in cyber and IT career fields has resulted in the first class of graduates, but the plans for employing these officers and gathering feedback on their impact are yet to be announced.
- The Space Force faces the first proposed budget cut for 2025, raising concerns about the need for more manpower and resources to fulfill its growing missions, particularly counter-space efforts. The Space Force's growth rate and focus on offensive space will be closely watched under President Trump's return.
