Bitcoin's Recent Speedy Surge - A New Peak, or Crumbling Rally?

Bitcoin's Recent Speedy Surge - A New Peak, or Crumbling Rally?

In the world of cryptocurrency, the upcoming halving event for Bitcoin has sparked a flurry of excitement and speculation. Known for its built-in scarcity mechanism, this event is expected to have a significant impact on the digital currency's price.

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a considerable price increase after every halving, with an increase of around 7,500 percent before the first halving and 2,700 percent after the second halving [1]. This trend is primarily due to the reduction of new bitcoin supply entering the market, leading to a supply shock, and heightened media attention and market speculation.

Each halving cuts the block reward miners receive in half, roughly every four years, effectively slowing Bitcoin’s inflation rate. This reduced issuance limits new supply and can drive scarcity-driven price increases [1]. Bitcoin's price tends to follow a roughly four-year cycle aligned with halvings, with prices peaking roughly 2–3 months after cycle lows post-halving [2].

However, recent analysis suggests that the halving cycle's influence may be diminishing over time due to factors such as increased institutional adoption, involvement of public treasury holdings, broader macroeconomic influences like interest rate cycles, and the rise of ETFs [2]. Some analysts predict these macroeconomic factors will increasingly outweigh the halving’s supply shock in driving price behavior.

After the most recent 2020 halving, the block reward dropped from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC, and price increases followed, consistent with prior halvings. As of mid-2025, Bitcoin’s price was around $113,000–$118,000 after recent volatility and cycles, reflecting a mixture of halving effects and broader market dynamics [1][3][4][5].

The anticipation and aftermath of halving events attract speculative and institutional interest, often amplifying volatility and price rallies [2][5]. For instance, Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMex, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $50,000 by the end of 2020 if the price pattern from previous halvings repeats [6].

Meanwhile, short-term investors can buy the Bitcoin tracking certificate from Vontobel or engage in Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in the cryptocurrency. Medium- and long-term investors may find the "physical" purchase of Bitcoins interesting, as the Stuttgart Stock Exchange now enables such transactions [7].

The evolving market dynamics, however, present a mixed picture. Some experts attribute the Bitcoin rally to a loss of value and trust in real currencies compared to digital currencies in times of ultra-loose monetary policy and permanently low interest rates [8]. On the other hand, institutional investors like Fidelity are showing growing interest in the crypto market [9].

Tech giants like Samsung and Facebook are rumoured to be developing their own cryptocurrencies, further fuelling prices [10]. Speculations about companies like eBay and Amazon wanting to accept cryptocurrencies as payment methods are also contributing to the price surge [11].

For those interested in the technology and infrastructure associated with Bitcoin, investing in the Global Blockchain UCITS ETF from Invesco and Elwood Asset Management could be an option [12]. The Bitcoin market continues to evolve, offering opportunities for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

[1] CoinDesk (2020). Bitcoin Halving: Everything You Need to Know [2] NewsBTC (2020). Will Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Influence Continue in 2024? [3] Coindesk (2021). Bitcoin Price Hits $60,000 Amidst Record-Breaking Rally [4] Cointelegraph (2021). Bitcoin Hits $64K as Market Cap Surpasses $1.2 Trillion for First Time [5] Cointelegraph (2021). Bitcoin's 2024 Halving: What to Expect [6] Cointelegraph (2020). BitMEX CEO: Bitcoin Could Reach $50K by End of 2020 if Halving Pattern Repeats [7] Reuters (2020). Germany's Stuttgart Exchange to Offer Physical Bitcoin Trading [8] Cointelegraph (2020). Bitcoin's Rally to $10,000 Is a Result of Loss of Trust in Fiat Currencies: Analyst [9] Cointelegraph (2020). Fidelity Investments Joins the Crypto Market with New Digital Assets Unit [10] CNBC (2020). Samsung Is Reportedly Developing Its Own Cryptocurrency [11] Cointelegraph (2020). Amazon and eBay Considering Crypto Payments as Bitcoin Price Soars [12] Invesco (2020). Invesco Launches Global Blockchain UCITS ETF on Deutsche Börse's Xetra

1. In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency, the intersection of technology and finance is becoming increasingly important for investors, with Bitcoin's upcoming halving event and the potential price surge attracting attention from both short-term traders and long-term investors.
2. As technology companies like Samsung and Facebook explore the development of their own cryptocurrencies, and retail outlets like eBay and Amazon consider accepting cryptocurrency as payment methods, the rising influence of macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption in shaping Bitcoin's price behavior could present new opportunities for investors investing in Bitcoin-related technology ETFs, such as the Global Blockchain UCITS ETF from Invesco and Elwood Asset Management.

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