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Finnish Institute Pioneers Immigration, Economic Forecasting with Internet Search Data

Finnish institute ETLA is using Google search data to forecast immigration and economic trends. But challenges in accessing private sector data and ensuring consistency across Europe may hinder wider adoption.

In this image we can see the information board, buildings, shed, trees, electric cables and sky...
In this image we can see the information board, buildings, shed, trees, electric cables and sky with clouds.

Finnish Institute Pioneers Immigration, Economic Forecasting with Internet Search Data

Finnish research institute ETLA is pioneering the use of internet search data to forecast immigration and economic trends. It's working with a startup to combine business register and online data for better insights. Meanwhile, Eurostat faces challenges in accessing certain private sector data.

ETLA's tool, ETLAnow, uses real-time Google search data and official Eurostat data to forecast unemployment levels in EU countries daily for the next three months. This innovative approach could provide more timely and accurate insights than traditional methods.

However, statistical agencies may be hesitant to rely solely on private sector alternative data sources due to concerns about future data availability and consistency. Eurostat, for instance, has agreements with retailers for retail scanner data but struggles to access similar data from banks and credit card companies.

The Employment Committee (EMCO) of the European Commission uses online job vacancy data to analyze European labor markets at the regional level. It's supported by working groups and coordinates employment policies involving representatives from member states, social partners, and European institutions. Yet, consistency in gathering and analyzing supplemental data across European countries remains a challenge due to varying data availability and open data policies.

To discuss these issues, the Center for Data Innovation hosted a policy forum at the European Parliament, focusing on using non-traditional data sources to improve government data.

ETLA's work demonstrates the potential of internet search data in forecasting immigration and economic trends. However, challenges in accessing and integrating private sector data, as well as ensuring consistency across European countries, need to be addressed for wider adoption of these innovative methods.

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