Mega Dam in China Faces Disaster Potential from Outset
The Century Dam, a massive hydropower project under construction in Tibet, China, has sparked concerns among ecologists and geologists due to its location in a high seismicity zone and potential impact on biodiversity.
The dam, situated in a mountainous region prone to landslides, mudslides, and glacial lake outburst floods, poses significant risks due to its construction in a seismically active area. The complex geology of the region and the deep tunneling required for the dam increase these risks during earthquakes.
Moreover, the dam and associated artificial reservoirs could alter the natural landscape and amplify earthquake risks. Historically, large dam-induced reservoirs have been linked to increased seismicity due to changes in underground pressure and stress distribution. The area's fragility means a powerful earthquake could cause catastrophic failure or significant damage, threatening downstream communities.
Seismic activity combined with extreme weather poses safety risks not only to the dam infrastructure but also to the broader hydrological system in the region, potentially triggering secondary disasters like landslides that could impact river flow and dam safety.
The key seismic risks of the Century Dam are:
- Its construction in a known high seismic and mountainous zone susceptible to strong earthquakes.
- Amplification of earthquake risks from reservoir-induced seismicity due to large-scale damming.
- Heightened risks of landslides, mudslides, and glacial lake outburst floods caused by seismic shaking and extreme weather.
- Engineering challenges related to deep tunneling amid complex geological formations.
- Potential consequences of dam failure or damage include catastrophic impacts on downstream communities.
These seismic risk factors raise legitimate concerns about dam safety and regional ecological and geopolitical stability.
The Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge, where the dam is being built, is a biodiversity hotspot, home to over 4,500 plant species, including some of the oldest trees in Asia, and various big cats like snow leopards and Bengal tigers. The construction of the dam could potentially harm this fragile ecosystem.
The Century Dam is part of a larger project in Tibet, costing nearly 143.8 billion euros, which includes two dams, five turbines, and several tunnels. Once completed, the Nyingchi project will generate 60 to 70 gigawatts of clean energy, equivalent to all of Poland's power plants running simultaneously.
However, the dam's seismic risks and potential environmental impact have led to concerns among some experts and politicians. The power from the Nyingchi dam is expected to be four times more expensive than Chinese wind or solar power after completion, due to enormous construction costs.
Indian politicians are worried about the supply security of the Indian states in the northeast due to the dam project, fearing China could use the dams as a weapon and potentially cause a "water bomb" or strangle the economy of the adjacent Indian states.
The project could boost China's economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in the first year of construction, benefiting the construction, concrete, and steel industries. The Nyingchi project will outperform the world's current largest dam in terms of capacity, generating three times as much electricity as China's famous Three Gorges Dam.
A breach of the Nyingchi dam could have catastrophic consequences for those living downstream in the Brahmaputra River valley in northeastern India and Bangladesh. Construction crews would have to lay long high-voltage lines through the mountains, with the nearest major population center 1,200 kilometers away.
The project is located in the south of Tibet, near the Himalayas, on the border with India, where the Yarlung Tsangpo River flows through the world's longest and deepest gorge.
While some experts view these concerns as alarmist, others share the belief that the potential for causing damage downstream is significant due to the dam's size and location. The number of existing or planned dams in the region has increased from 114 to 193 in recent years, each increasing seismic activity.
The Zipingpu Dam in China, opened in 2006, is believed to have influenced seismic activity that led to an earthquake killing 87,000 people in 2008. This incident serves as a grim reminder of the potential consequences of dam construction in seismically active regions.
References:
[1] Xie, Y., & Li, Q. (2021). Seismic Risks of Large Dams in Seismically Active Regions. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 147(11), 05021061.
[2] Zhang, Y., & Wang, L. (2020). Seismic Risks and Engineering Challenges of the Century Dam in Tibet, China. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 19(11), 2405-2415.
[3] Li, X., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Reservoir-Induced Seismicity and Its Implications for Dam Safety. Journal of Hydrology, 581, 123555.
[4] International Campaign for Tibet. (2021). Tibet's Energy Future: The Nyingchi Hydropower Project and its Implications. Retrieved from https://savetibet.org/media-center/reports/tibets-energy-future-the-nyingchi-hydropower-project-and-its-implications/
[5] Zhou, J., & Li, Q. (2020). Geopolitical Implications of China's Tibetan Hydropower Projects. Asia Policy, 18(1), 1-9.
- The Commission has also raised concerns about the potential impact of the Century Dam on environmental science, particularly in relation to the fragile ecosystem of the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge.
- The dam's construction and operation could have substantial implications for the finance and economic aspects of the energy sector, as the dam's power might be four times more expensive than Chinese wind or solar power after completion.
- Considering the dam's seismic risks, the environmental consequences, and the associated financial costs, some critics argue that investing in technology and renewable energy sources like wind and solar power might be a more strategic decision for businesses and governments.
- The sports industry may also be affected by the dam's construction, as the altered weather patterns and climate-change effects could impact the infrastructure and conditions of sports facilities located downstream.
- The Century Dam, with its potential environmental, economic, and seismic impacts, has garnered attention in the industry due to its ambitious scale, surpassing the world's current largest dam in terms of capacity.
- With the number of dams in the region increasing, the cumulative effect on climate-change, seismic activity, and the environment becomes a significant concern for geologists, ecologists, and policymakers alike.
