New Model Predicts Coastal Changes to Aid Adaptation
Scientists at the University of Plymouth have developed a groundbreaking model to predict coastal changes and aid adaptation. The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (ForCE) model, created by Dr. Mark Davidson, Associate Professor in Coastal Processes, addresses coastal managers' need to assess coastline resilience in changing wave and sea-level conditions. This innovative tool could provide early warnings for coastal erosion and potential overtopping, and forecast coastal evolution over longer timescales.
The ForCE model uses past and present beach measurements, physical coastal property data, tidal, surge, and sea-level rise data to forecast beach evolution. It can predict coastal evolution over timescales ranging from days to decades, including short-term storm impacts and long-term sea-level rise effects. The model has shown over 80% accuracy in tests at Perranporth, Cornwall, accurately predicting beach change, offshore sand bar formation, and recovery after storms.
Researchers found that beaches like Perranporth in North Cornwall have not fully recovered from the winter storms of 2013/14, five years later. Sea level is forecast to rise by about 0.5m over the next 100 years, threatening prominent coastal structures within the next 60 years if the rise is more significant. Coastal communities worldwide face significant threats from extreme storms and rising sea levels due to global climate change.
The University of Plymouth, a leading authority in coastal engineering and change, has developed the ForCE model to help coastal managers make informed decisions. With over 80% accuracy in predicting beach changes, the model could provide early warnings for coastal erosion and potential overtopping. As sea levels rise and storms intensify, the ForCE model is a crucial tool for understanding and adapting to coastal evolution.
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