NFL Pricing on Kalshi Lags Behind FanDuel and DraftKings During Early Season
In the world of sports betting, a new player has entered the fray. Kalshi, a platform that has been offering sports outcome markets since the Super Bowl, has recently expanded its offerings to include spreads and totals. However, it remains to be seen whether this newcomer will challenge the dominance of established sportsbooks.
Operators like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, and BetRivers continue to hold a clear advantage in pricing and promotions. As of now, there is no immediate threat to the traditional sportsbook model from Kalshi.
Despite not having explicit user numbers, Kalshi's valuation rose to a staggering $5 billion in 2025, indicating significant growth and investor confidence in regulated prediction markets. The liquidity differences in NFL markets on Kalshi likely reflect this growth and the platform's increasing mainstream adoption.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks that rely on fixed-odds betting and charge fees and margins embedded in odds, Kalshi operates as a federally regulated marketplace with transparent trading of event contracts. This model, which is more of a marketplace fee structure without traditional sportsbook take rates, may have different fees related to trading and liquidity provision.
Citizens expect pricing to tighten as more users join Kalshi. The NFL schedule, with its unmatched per-game betting volume, is viewed as a key test for Kalshi. Larger players such as sharps, whales, and institutions often avoid paying the transaction fee on Kalshi, helping to boost liquidity.
Narrowing spreads on Kalshi would show the exchange gaining liquidity and potentially adjusting incentives for market makers. Interestingly, Kalshi's transaction fee for Week 2 is $1.64 per 100 contracts, down from $1.67 the prior week.
Kalshi's model is more appealing to bettors who might otherwise use offshore sites, rather than licensed sportsbooks. The NFL standings are expected to have some of the most liquid sports markets for Kalshi all year, excluding tentpole events.
As Kalshi navigates the NFL season, it will be interesting to see how it fares against the established sportsbooks. With its unique model and growing user base, Kalshi could potentially shake up the sports betting landscape. Only time will tell.
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