Persisting Stagnation in U.S. Lifespan Expectancy Remains Concerning
The most recent report from the CDC on mortality in the USA reveals that the average lifespan at birth increased from 77.5 in 2022 to 78.4 in 2023. Although this indicates a recovery from the substantial drops in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the figure is still lower than the 2010 level. Preliminary data suggests that the increase in life expectancy in 2024 will be minimal, as the recovery seems to be losing momentum.
According to a study published in The Lancet and conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, life expectancy in the USA is predicted to increase by around two years over the next 25 years—much less than in other affluent, developed nations. Specifically, USA life expectancy is expected to rise from its 2023 level to 80.4 years in 2050. This small increase will position the USA in 66th place globally in terms of life expectancy rankings.
Life expectancy represents an estimate of the average number of years a newborn born in a given year might expect to live, given the death rates at that time. It is widely regarded as a fundamental measure of a population's health.
A new report released by the Bloomberg American Health Initiative highlights several reasons why the significant disparity between USA life expectancy and other developed countries is likely to persist, such as the higher incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and diabetes, as well as high levels of drug overdoses, gun violence, motor vehicle fatalities, and infant and maternal mortality. These factors help explain, for instance, the 2.7-year gap in life expectancy between the USA and the UK.
Countries like Japan, Korea, Portugal, the UK, and Italy currently have a lifespan of 80 years or more. The graph below illustrates how the gap between the USA and its counterparts has grown substantially since 1980.
Remarkably, the USA's life expectancy lags significantly behind that of its wealthier counterparts, despite spending considerably more on healthcare. In fact, the USA spends more on healthcare in both absolute and per capita terms than any other nation, yet its mortality and morbidity outcomes are relatively average.
Furthermore, the stark inequality that exists in the USA with regard to income inequality is particularly noteworthy. The chart below clearly demonstrates this disparity.
Focusing on women, researchers project that female life expectancy in West Virginia in 2050 will be lower than in 1990 and that there will be little change in the states of Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Utah. While other states are projected to improve in varying degrees, persistent inequality presents a significant obstacle.
The American public health system is confronted with numerous challenges, including shrinking budgets at both the federal and state levels. Besides the challenges confronting the healthcare system directly, there are issues related to dietary habits, lack of exercise, and "despair diseases," such as suicide, alcoholism, and illegal drug use, which have a significant socioeconomic impact.
Whether controversial nominee for Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., can "make America healthy again" remains to be seen. While Kennedy's ideas to improve nutrition have support in the public health community, they may conflict with the interests of the food industry. Furthermore, other initiatives Kennedy may undertake could potentially weaken core pillars of public health in America, making it challenging to achieve the goal of narrowing the life expectancy gap between the USA and its counterparts.
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report indicates that obesity-related mortality and morbidity are significant factors contributing to the lower life expectancy in the USA compared to other developed countries.
- RFK Jr.'s nomination as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services brings hopes of improving public health, especially in addressing issues like obesity, but concerns arise over potential conflicts with food industry interests.
- High levels of drug overdoses and morbidities due to obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease are contributing to a considerable gap in life expectancy between the USA and countries like Japan, Korea, Portugal, the UK, and Italy.
- Public health initiatives aimed at improving life expectancy in the USA must address the root causes of poor health outcomes, such as obesity and substance abuse, which are often tied to socioeconomic factors like income inequality and dietary habits.
