Research Reveals: Crime Prediction Software Lacks Precision in Forecasting Criminal Activities
Predictive policing software, a popular technique among law enforcement departments across the country, has come under scrutiny following an investigation that found Geolitica's software, previously known as PredPol, produced almost zero helpful results in Plainfield, New Jersey.
The investigation, conducted by Gizmodo and The Markup, involved a dataset provided by the Plainfield Police Department containing 23,631 predictions made by Geolitica. However, during a roughly ten-month period, between Feb. 25 to Dec. 18, 2018, Geolitica accurately predicted where crimes would occur with a "less than half a percent" success rate.
Geolitica, a crime prediction software, claims to use data-driven strategies to identify "hot spots" where crime is most likely to occur. The software was implemented in Plainfield with the aim of enhancing effectiveness in reducing crime. However, Captain David Guarino of the Plainfield Police Department has been open about the software's shortcomings, stating that its usage was reportedly infrequent, if at all.
The study, released this week, suggests that predictive policing has been ineffective in the city of Plainfield. This finding is concerning, given the widespread use of such software and the potential for systemic entrenchment and lack of transparency.
Systemic Entrenchment and Lack of Transparency
Predictive policing models may reinforce existing inequalities by targeting areas with historical crime data. This can be influenced by socioeconomic factors like poverty and segregation, leading to a feedback loop where certain neighborhoods receive more policing, potentially affecting residents' lives and opportunities.
Moreover, many predictive policing algorithms are proprietary, making it difficult to understand how they work or evaluate their fairness. This lack of transparency can undermine democratic oversight and community trust.
While the investigation did not delve into the specifics of Geolitica's software in Plainfield, these general issues highlight the potential pitfalls of such systems. Further studies and reports are necessary to provide a detailed analysis of Geolitica's effectiveness in Plainfield, New Jersey.
It is worth noting that Geolitica was eventually discontinued by the Plainfield Police Department. The company, which rebranded two years ago, is reportedly planning to cease operations at the end of this year. Some of Geolitica's team have already been hired by a different law enforcement company, indicating a shift in focus and strategy within the field of predictive policing.
As the use of predictive policing software continues to evolve, it is crucial to address these issues to ensure fair and effective policing for all communities.
- Despite its widespread use, the lack of transparency in predictive policing technology, as demonstrated by Geolitica's software, can undermine democratic oversight and community trust.
- The future of predictive policing technology, like Geolitica, is uncertain as concerns about systemic entrenchment, lack of transparency, and effectiveness continue to rise.
- The technology sector, including companies like Gizmodo, plays a significant role in shedding light on the performance and implications of predictive policing software in general-news, such as the case of Geolitica in Plainfield, New Jersey.
